My money is on a buy-out of PAG backed by private equity and hedge funds. Who knows, maybe some big automotive suppliers might be part of such a deal. None of the automobile manufacturers is a likely buyer, either because of their own problems, or because Volvo/Jaguar/Land Rover would not be compatible and easily integrated.

The arguments which speak for Porsche are valid for the three brands on their own…

They do not interfere with each other and therefore do not cannibalise. Despite that they have a great potential sharing development and components. All have incredible brand recognition and potential value. Volvo might need some joint ventures for engines and platforms and PSA has demonstrated that this strategy works quite well.

Oh btw, why not spycing the dish with a little bit of GM’s like Subaru and Saab in the mix. Sounds like fun. oh and maybe Mazda, hey offer Ford an attractive price and they couldn’t say no, could they? Adding those brands to the lot would be the making of an new interesting major player.

The buyers are about to make a very good deal, all three brands together at a bargain price. Buy three for the price of two. And I think the best argument for such a deal is Ford: they wouldn’t sell if they weren’t desperate.

The only parties likely to spoil such a deal are the Chinese, after all, they could even add old Rover to the deal…

So here we go through options which are more likely than the previous bunch. But, nay, they ain’t great candidates either.

Renault-Nissan – Land-Rover, Jaguar and Volvo look good for Renault on paper. Profitable luxury brands where Renault isn’t strong. But hey, there is Nissan and Infinity. Nissan is good with quality cars and SUVs. Infinity is rear wheel drive and could be developed for the European market. So there go Land-Rover and Jaguar. Volvo is more attractive – until you look at the efforts Renault has undertaken to become the brand for “5-star safety”. And then Volvo and Renault had a fling before Ford stepped in. They didn’t like to go through with it then, so why should they do so now?

PSA – again, on the surface such a deal looks appealing until you digg deeper. PSA is not without problems, their car range has become unattractive with the notable exception of Citroen. Ok, so Volvo / Land-Rover / Jaguar could open the US market for PSA. But would they try to sell Citroens and Peugeots over there? Even with the distribution in place, that seems unlikely anytime soon. PSA seems good in collaborating with others on engines (BMW, Ford), vans and minivans (FIAT), small cars (Toyota) and more recently SUVs (Mitsubishi). None of the three bands would add much to the PSA portfolio. So we think PSA won’t buy any of them.

FIAT – again great on paper, Volvo, Land-Rover and Jaguar opening the US-market for FIAT. But look at FIAT, they are just getting out of a long struggle which nearly destroyed the concern. And hey, FIAT is not very good at managing acquisitions. Lancia is not really selling outside of Italy. Alfa Romeo has a great potential, but recent models like the fat Brera and Spyder disappoint the enthousiasts and are not attractive enough for the executive buyers. Alfa as a company car? Alfa fleet sales? Yeah, exactly. The only successful joint-ventures were with PSA (vans, minivans), so FIAT might be trying more of those cooperations like they just did with Suzuki.

technorati tags:Volvo, Jaguar, Land Rover, PSA, FIAT, Renault-Nissan

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